This Stock Market Indicator Has Been 86% Accurate Since 1984, and It Signals a Big Move in the Second Half of 2024

The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) advanced 14.5% in the first half of 2024. That momentum was initially driven by rate-cut hopes. Investors entered the year thinking the Federal Reserve would cut its benchmark interest rate six times. But sticky inflation reset those expectations. The market now anticipates just two cuts later this year, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.Fortunately, enthusiasm about artificial intelligence (AI) provided a second tailwind for the S&P 500. Investors have shrugged aside concerns about the macroeconomic environment and piled into AI stocks. For instance, Nvidia alone has contributed about 30% of the gains in the S&P 500 year to date, while Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon have collectively driven about 26% of the gains.The S&P 500's performance in the second half of 2024 will depend on how those variables continue to evolve, but one stock market indicator says the index will maintain its upward momentum. Specifically, following double-digit returns in the first half of the year, the S&P 500 has almost always climbed even higher during the second half. Here's what investors should know.Continue readingWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei MotleyFool Zum vollständigen Artikel