BNP: Gute Aussichten für Indien

Ausgelöst durch sinkende Inflation erwarten wir in Indien steigende Staatsausgaben und reale Einkommenszuwächse. Dies sollte sich positiv auf das Wirtschaftswachstum auswirken.

After correcting by 6.22% in USD terms in April, the MSCI India 10/40 (NR) index recordedpositive returns in May and June to end the quarter down by 3.35% in USD terms. TheIndian rupee (INR) depreciated by 2.03% against the US dollar over the same period.GDP growth for the first quarter of 2015 was above expectations at 7.5% YoY. However,gross value added (GVA), which tends to better reflect growth dynamics, increasedmore mildly at 6.1% YoY. For the full fiscal year ending in March 2015 (FY 2015), GDPgrowth accelerated from 6.9% in FY 2014 to 7.3%, despite poor monsoons and sluggishconsumption trends.

Similar to what happened during the winter session of parliament, the government failedto make much headway during the budget session due to reluctant opposition parties andthe lack of a government majority in the Upper House. Key bills such as the Goods andServices Tax (GST) Bill and the Land Acquisition Bill have been referred to committeesfor further consideration before being examined again during the monsoon session ofparliament.

The uncertainty surrounding the applicability of the Minimum Alternate Tax (MAT) toforeign investors was a hot topic this quarter. The government set up the Shah committeeto consult on the issue with the various stakeholders and make recommendations.CPI inflation remained stable over the quarter. In May the CPI stood at 5.0%, up from 4.9%in April. Core CPI inflation picked up to 4.4% from 4.0% in April, but remains within theReserve Bank of India’s (RBI) comfort range. The trade deficit narrowed for the secondconsecutive month in May to USD 10.4 billion. Exports stayed weak in May, while non-oil,non-gold imports contracted for the first time in 13 months. Industrial output for Aprilimproved to a healthy 6.1% in line with recent industrial production trends.As expected, the RBI cut the repo rate by 25bp to 7.25% during its monetary policy meetingon 2 June. The central bank highlighted that further monetary policy action would be datacontingent,given the upside risks to inflation depending on potentially poor monsoons,the efficiency of the government’s policy response, geopolitical risks to oil prices andexternal volatility impacting the exchange rate. 

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