Goldman Sachs: Aktien - Anstieg zur Normalität

Suneil Mahindru, CIO für internationale Aktien, und das Fundamental Equity Team von Goldman Sachs Asset Management diskutieren in ihrem Quartalsausblick, warum sich Aktienrenditen ihren historischen Durchschnittswerten nähern und Stockpicking ein entscheidender Erfolgsfaktor ist.

The Slow, Steady Climb to Normal

We believe equity returns for 2014 are likely to be in line with historical averages. In fact, with global equity returns of 6.18% (in USD) for the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) as of June 30th, they are more than half way to the historical averages for the MSCI ACWI (8%) and MSCI World Index (9.8%)1. Compared to the last couple of years, the slow, steady climb to normal, average returns may feel like it takes a lot of patience and effort. We agree. Following recent strong equity performance in many markets, valuations are close to historical averages, which means investors must look harder for individual stock opportunities and will have less downside protection. However, the global economic recovery is broadening and consensus expectations are for an 8.7% increase in earnings in 2014,2 which should support roughly 8-10% equity returns. Furthermore, equity risk premiums are still above average, suggesting that equities may look attractive to other assets.

Don’t Miss the Micro for the Macro

Active management and stock selection will be more critical for generating alpha, in our view. Several benchmarks, particularly in the US, have notably outperformed many active managers this year. We think this phenomenon is unlikely to persist. Correlations between stocks have fallen from elevated levels during the financial crisis, which creates more potential for stock level differentiation.

Furthermore, in the developed markets, valuations are largely at historical averages, which will likely lessen the upside potential for a broad index and will make stock picking more critical to generating returns. For example, while the US market is currently trading at about 15.5x forward earnings,4 we see many interesting companies trading at around 10-12x forward earnings. Similarly, while we are bullish on the Information Technology (IT) sector globally, we are underweight Japanese technology stocks because most of them are hardware companies and we generally prefer software, IT services or companies related to secular trends like mobility and the cloud. We believe these companies are more likely to benefit from increased spending.

Der vollständige Ausblick im pdf-Dokument

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