02.08.2018 13:25:21

Janus Henderson: Thoughts and bonds - dealing with divergence

​‘Thoughts and bonds’ provides a quarterly view and outlook for the fixed income markets from the Fundamental Fixed Income team at Janus Henderson, where they share their insights on potential investment risks and opportunities.

Key takeaways:

  • Our current thesis is threefold: the US Treasury curve will continue to flatten; divergence in credit markets will persist with high yield outperforming, and credit curves will continue to steepen.
  • US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, diminishing demand for Treasuries and increasing supply should drive US rates higher. The Fed’s stable long-term outlook will likely keep longer-dated yields range-bound, leading to a flatter curve.
  • We expect the strength in corporate fundamentals to continue. However, merger and acquisition activity, rich valuations and rising rates amid the latter stages of the credit cycle warrant a cautious outlook on corporate credit.

For the Q3 2018 issue please click here: Dealing with divergence


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