Goldman Sachs: Unterschiedliche Wege, unterschiedliche Möglichkeiten

In den aktuellen „Macro Insights“ erläutern die Experten von GSAM nicht nur die aktuellen Makro-Trends und Asset-Allokation, sondern fokussieren sich auch auf die voneinander abweichenden ökonomischen und politischen Entwicklungen in den USA und der Eurozone.

For the last five months, we have witnessed very low macroeconomic volatility where, despite improvements in economic fundamentals and rising equity markets, central banks maintain low interest rates globally. Next, we expect to move into an environment of higher volatility and greater regional differentiation. These differences include investors’ expectations for growth, inflation and policy makers’ reaction functions. The latter is exacerbated by a wider range of available tools for central bankers. Strategic diversification combined with nimbleness should helpinvestors respond to subsequent asset price movements. 

Our overall macro calls this year have continued to play out, namely growth acceleration and middling inflation leading to reasonable DM equity returns, stability in credit markets and a shift in US policy. Data continues to improve in the US and we see catalysts such as housing coming forward to contribute to a higher growth rate than other developed market economies.

Transitioning China’s $2 trillion economy will naturally be hard to co-ordinate. Our base case is not for a hard landing, as growth continues to be underwritten by policy and we expect the latest announcement of People's Bank of China easing to have a positive impact. The delay of some infrastructure spending from the first half of the year to the second should provide a tailwind for growth. Having said that, we remain alert for opportunities to hedge any micro-cycles in credit, stimulus and confidence.

Der vollständige Marktbericht im pdf-Dokument

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