Natixis: „Zinsen bleiben bis Ende 2016 niedrig“

Experten der Fondsgesellschaft Natixis kommentieren das Treffen der Europäischen Zentralbank. Sie rechnen nicht mit einem starken Inflationsanstieg vor Ende des Jahrzehnts.

Philippe Waechter, Chief Economist - Natixis Asset Management:

The ECB changes the scale of its operations

The ECB has announced measures to stabilize the money market and measures which will bring more liquidity at a longer horizon in order to boost credit growth and a more sustainable growth recovery.

This will keep interest rates at a very low-level for an extended period, at least until the end of 2016. This will have a long-lasting downward effect on the interest rates structure, peripheral countries included. Even with a negative deposit facility rate, I don’t think that the euro exchange rate will drop. The current account surplus of the Euro Area is large and here to stay. That will maintain a strong euro exchangerate.

Targeted operations on credit will transfer credit risks from the banking system to the ECB. But this transfer will be temporary. The length of the operation is limited to four years. This could be a boost for the development of credit but there are still uncertainties on the banks’ willingness to renew a kind of operation that was put in place at the end of 2011 and beginning of 2012. As I mentioned in an earlier post (here), will it be sufficient to exit from a risk of deflation? That’s the question because the inflation rate will not converge to its target before 2017 – 2020. It’s still far in the future.

Die Kommentare anderer Experten im pdf-Dokument

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