Copper holds above $14,400 as Chile strike risk grows

Copper held above $14,400 a tonne in London on Tuesday after workers at Antofagasta’s (LON: ANTO) Centinela mine in Chile voted to strike, adding a potential supply disruption to an already tight market.

Three-month futures rose 0.2% to $14,446 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange at 12:50 p.m. local time. The metal is on track for a third consecutive monthly gain, up about 9% in September after reaching a record $14,875 earlier in the month.

Workers in two unions at Centinela rejected the company’s final contract offer on Monday. The vote opens a mandatory mediation period before a walkout could begin.

Wage talks at BHP’s (ASX: BHP) Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine, were also delayed following a fatal accident. 

Supply squeeze

Large volumes of refined copper have accumulated in US warehouses as traders anticipate a possible import tariff. That stockpiling has reduced the metal readily available to buyers elsewhere, while China’s Yangshan import premium, a gauge of demand for overseas copper, is near its highest level since 2022. 

Deutsche Bank expects copper to climb to about $22,000 a tonne by the second quarter of 2027 if competition for available supplies intensifies.

Data released by the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) supports the bank’s outlook. Mine production was running at an annualized 23 million tonnes in July, down 4% from June, the group reported. ICSG also said that refined demand rose 3% from a year earlier to an annualized 29 million tonnes, while refined supply slipped 1% to 28.4 million tonnes.