The 1 Number That Would Change My Mind About Nvidia Stock

I think Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock is a buy. Its price-to-earnings ratio is around 15 using analysts' consensus estimate for its next fiscal year (ending January 2028). For a company whose revenue more than doubled year over year last quarter, that price looks fair to me.

But it pays to know beforehand what would change that view. Nvidia is worth about $5.8 trillion, with shares trading around $239 as I write, near their all-time high. Investors paying that much are relying on Nvidia to keep charging buyers a premium for its chips.

There's one number Nvidia reports every quarter that I watch most closely: gross margin, or the share of revenue left after the direct cost of making what it sells. If it drops under 70% in a quarter with no one-time charge to explain it, I'd no longer call the stock a buy.

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